ارزیابی رابطه‌ علی سه‌متغیره رشد اقتصادی در شکوفایی اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان و تأثیر فرهنگی سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی در توسعه‌ معادن و زیرساخت‌های عمرانی کشور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی (کاربردی)

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه فنی و حرفه ای، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه زمین شناسی دانشگاه پیام نور ،تهران، ایران.

10.48301/kssa.2023.385450.2450

چکیده

بررسی مطالعات اقتصادی نشان می‌دهد که آزادی اقتصادی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، هر دو از مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر رشد اقتصادی به‌شمار می‌روند که تقریباً در تمامی مطالعات انجام‌یافته به‌صورت زوجی بررسی و به دلایل متعددی از بررسی ارتباط هم‌زمان آنها چشم‌پوشی شده است. از این رو در این مطالعه با استفاده از روش تودا و یاماماتو (1995) وجود رابطه علّی میان سه متغیر مهم رشد اقتصادی، آزادی اقتصادی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در اقتصاد ایران برای دوره 1399-1360 ارزیابی شده است. در این مطالعه برای بررسی ارتباط میان متغیرهای موردنظر تحقیق، ابتدا مدلVAR(K+D max)  تخمین زده شد سپس تعدادK  عدد از ضرایب تخمین زده‌شده در مدل به‌وسیله آزمون والد تعمیم‌یافته (MWALD)، بررسی و سپس درمورد علیت آنها اظهارنظر گردید. نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه نشان داد که در دوره موردنظر، تنها رابطه علیت دوسویه، میان آزادی اقتصادی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی وجود دارد. همچنین رابطه علی میان رشد اقتصادی با دو متغیر بعدی نیز یک‌طرفه است و این علیت از سمت آزادی اقتصادی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی به سمت رشد اقتصادی می‌باشد. از این‌رو می‌توان انتظار داشت که در اقتصاد ایران با بهبود آزادی اقتصادی و با تجدیدنظر در شیوه سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در زیرساخت‌های عمرانی و فعالیت‌های دانش‌بنیان با ارزش افزوده بالاتر، افزایش رشد اقتصادی و پایداری آن را تثبیت و تسریع کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the Three-Variable Causal Relationship of Economic Growth in the Flourishing of the Knowledge-Based Economy and the Cultural Impact of Foreign Investment in the Development of Mines and Civil Infrastructure in the Country

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadreza Arefi 1
  • Mohammad Ariamanesh 2
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Technical and Vocational University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Geology, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

A review of the economic literature shows that economic freedom and foreign direct investment are both considered to be the most important factors affecting economic growth, which have been examined in pairs in almost all studies and for several reasons. Examining their simultaneous connection is ignored. Therefore, in this study, using the method of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the existence of a causal relationship between the three important variables of economic growth, economic freedom and foreign direct investment in Iran's economy was evaluated for the period 2010-2019. In this study, to investigate the relationship between the research variables, first, the VAR model (K+D max) was estimated, and then the K number of coefficients was estimated in the model by the Generalized Wald test (MWALD), and then commented about their causality. The results of this study showed that in the period in question, there was only a two-way causality relationship between economic freedom and foreign direct investment. In addition, the causal relationship between economic growth and the next two variables was also one-way, and this causality was from the aspects of economic freedom and foreign direct investment towards economic growth. Therefore, the Iranian economy will stabilize and accelerate economic growth and stability by improving economic freedom and revising the method of foreign direct investment in construction infrastructures and knowledge-based activities with higher added value.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic growth
  • Economic freedom
  • Foreign direct investment
  • Causality test
  • Knowledge base

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فصلنامه علمی کارافن
دوره 20، ویژه نامه
علوم انسانی
شهریور 1402
صفحه 205-227

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 اسفند 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 06 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 16 اردیبهشت 1402

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