فصلنامه علمی کارافن

فصلنامه علمی کارافن

سناریونگاری شکل‌گیری پدیده «ساخت‌وساز چهار» در صنعت ساختمان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی (توسعه ای)

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دوره دکتری مدیریت دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.
2 دانشیار بخش مدیریت صنعتی دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.
3 استادیار بخش مدیریت صنعتی دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.
چکیده
نفوذ جریان انقلاب صنعتی چهارم به صنعت ساختمان باعث معرفی مفهوم «ساخت‌وساز چهار» شده و هدف از مطالعه حاضر آن است که چگونگی شکل‌گیری این پدیده در کشور ایران را در افق زمانی بیست­‌ساله از طریق آینده‌پژوهی مورد تحلیل قرار دهد. پژوهش کیفی و توصیفی حاضر با رویکرد آینده‌­پژوهی اکتشافی طراحی شده است. به‌منظور تحقق اهداف تحقیق، فهرستی اولیه از پیشران‌­های کلیدی مؤثر بر شکل­گ‌یری پدیده ساخت­‌وساز چهار از سوابق پژوهشی و منابع علمی مکتوب استخراج شد و در ادامه با تشکیل گروه خبرگی با رویکرد دلفی اقدام به اولویت­‌بندی آن­ها صورت گرفت. در مرحله سناریونویسی نیز با بهره‌گیری از روش‌شناسی شبکه جهانی کسب و کار، ضمن ایجاد تلاقی میان عدم قطعیت‌­های ناظر بر دو پیشران کلیدی، چهار سناریو از آینده­‌های باورپذیر در این زمینه تنظیم شد. اولویت‌بندی پیشران‌­های شناسایی شده در زمینه ایجاد پدیده ساخت­‌وساز چهار در کشور ایران حاکی از آن است که دو عامل کلیدی در این زمینه عبارتند از: «همکاری­‌های علمی کشور با جهان پیشرفته» و «پیشرفت­‌های فناورانه در عرصه­‌های نوین». سناریوهای چهارگانه حاصل از تلاقی این دو عدم‌قطعیت با استعاره‌­های دریا، چشمه، مرداب و رود شناسایی شدند. برای آنکه ذی‌نفعان کلیدی صنعت ساختمان (شامل تولیدکنندگان، فناوران و بهره‌­برداران) بتوانند از جریان نوپدید ساخت­‌ساز چهار منتفع شوند، لازم است سیاست­‌گذاران این عرصه ضمن تقویت تعاملات علمی و فناورانه با کشورهای پیشرفته در این موضوع (همانند آلمان)، از شرکت­‌های نوپا و نوآور در این عرصه حمایت کنند؛ علاوه بر آن­که توجه به تقویت سایر پیشران­‌های شناسایی‌شده نیز ضروری است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Scenario-writing for the Formation of "Construction 4.0" in Iran

نویسندگان English

SeyedMehdi Alavi 1
Alireza Naser Sadrabadi 2
Habib Zare 2
Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan 3
1 PhD Student, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
چکیده English

The influence of the fourth industrial revolution on the construction industry has led to the introduction of the concept of "Construction 4.0" and the purpose of the present study was to analyze the formation of this phenomenon in Iran in a twenty-year time period through futures study. The present qualitative and descriptive research was designed with an exploratory futures study approach. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, an initial list of key drivers affecting the formation of Construction 4.0 was extracted from research records and written scientific sources, and then, by forming an expert group with the Delphi approach, they were prioritized. In the scenario-writing stage, using the methodology of the Global Business Network (GBN), four scenarios of possible futures in this field were set while creating an intersection between the uncertainties of two key drivers. The prioritization of the identified drivers in the field of creating the phenomenon of Construction 4.0 in Iran indicates that the two key factors in this field are: "Scientific cooperation of the country with the developed world" and "Technological advances in new areas". Quadruple scenarios resulting from the intersection of these two uncertainties were identified with the metaphors of Sea, Spring, Marsh, and River. It is necessary for the policy makers to strengthen scientific and technological interactions with advanced countries in this matter (such as Germany), to support start-up and innovative companies, and focus on strengthening the other identified main drivers.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Futures Study
Scenario-writing
Construction 4.0
Construction Industry
Fourth Industrial Revolution
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دوره 20، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 65
هنر و معماری / کشاورزی
زمستان 1402
صفحه 215-234

  • تاریخ دریافت 06 تیر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری 01 آبان 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش 28 آبان 1401