Karafan Journal

Karafan Journal

Future research and recognition of drivers of human resource provisioning subsystem with scenario writing approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Department of Public Administration, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Strategic Management, Amin University of Police Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
One of the main challenges of organizations' progress is the spread of effective factors in designing a desirable vision. In fact, future research provides the possibility to have credible narratives and images of the emerging landscape from the resulting insights. The purpose of this article is to research the future and recognition the drivers of the human resources provisioning subsystem of Iran's judiciary, using the scenario writing tool.In this research, it has been done using a mixed method (qualitative-quantitative), and using environmental scanning based on STEEP analysis. Prioritization of the primary variables, in order to find the most effective factors on the subsystem of providing human resources of the Judiciary, a questionnaire of 49 factors was set up by asking experts for their opinion, which, while determining the effectiveness and effectiveness of the matrix in a panel of experts, data analysis in Mac software. Mac is done. The findings show that depending on paying attention to all the indicators identified under the five concepts, socio-cultural, information technology, economic, environmental and health and political, including the increase of old age in the country, the attractiveness of employment in organizations will decrease. government, the substitution of technology instead of manpower, the specialization of jobs and the dismantling of traditional jobs, the lack of economic stability and the trend of decreasing the country's economic growth, climate change, etc...
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Volume 22, Issue 2
Humanities
Summer 2025

  • Receive Date 27 October 2024
  • Revise Date 08 January 2025
  • Accept Date 09 February 2025